Oliver Wyman’s Fleet Forecast Shows Aircraft Order Backlog Breaks Record At 17,000
February 27, 2025
New York, February 25, 2025 – Oliver Wyman, a global management consulting firm and a business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), today launched its latest Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2025-2035, which shows the global commercial aviation fleet poised for a significant expansion. Over the next decade, the fleet is set to grow to 38,300 from just a little over 29,000 at the start of 2025.
Despite this growth, the industry is challenged by major supply chain constraints and production delays that will push the order backlog to a new peak of 17,000. The fleet forecast predicts it will take 14 years for supply and demand to reconcile at current rates of production. Failing to replace older planes with new, more efficient jets has eliminated this year’s gains in fuel efficiency. Instead of recognizing a 1.5% to 2% gain as airlines usually do, the rate stagnated in 2024.
“On one hand, the aviation industry is breaking all kinds of records for passengers and revenue passenger kilometers. On the other hand, the aerospace industry must push to increase production enough to keep up with that growth,” said Anthony DiNota, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Oliver Wyman Vector. “Holding it back are various hurdles, such as raw materials and labor shortages, and it also must contend with the experience gap created by the retirement of so many baby boomers.”
However, this isn't an adverse scenario for the entire sector. The maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market is experiencing a super cycle, with MRO spending set to reach $119 billion in 2025 — a 12% increase from the previous peak in 2019. The industry’s aging fleet, along with ongoing durability issues in next-generation aircraft and engines, is driving an MRO expansion rate of 2.7% annually through 2035.
Key findings from the forecast include,
Fleet growth and production challenges: Narrowbody aircraft will account for an increasing share of the global fleet, rising from 62% today to 68% by 2035, as airlines continue to prioritize fuel-efficient, single-aisle jets for short- and medium-haul routes.
Regional market shifts: India is set to be the fastest-growing aviation market, with its commercial fleet expected to more than double by 2035, supported by strong economic expansion and major investments in airport infrastructure. While China remains a dominant player, its fleet growth has slowed compared to previous forecasts, now projected to expand by 40% to nearly 6,300 aircrafts due to economic headwinds and shifting trade policies. The Middle East and Oceania are also experiencing rapid growth, with fleet expansions of 5.1% and 4.5% CAGR, driven by increased passenger demand and fleet modernization efforts. In contrast, North America and Western Europe will see more modest growth, with these mature markets focusing on fleet renewal rather than significant expansion.
MRO super cycle and industry pressures: The MRO sector is experiencing a surge in demand, with spending projected to hit $156 billion by 2035, marking a 31% increase from 2025 levels. Engine maintenance is expected to grow at 7.5% due to persistent durability issues with next-generation engines, which require earlier-than-expected shop visits. Labor shortages continue to intensify, with North America expected to face a shortfall of 40,000 aviation mechanics by 2028, driving up wages and maintenance costs. Supply chain constraints remain a critical bottleneck for both aircraft production and aftermarket services, leading to higher costs and longer turnaround times for maintenance.
“The aviation industry is entering a defining decade, balancing strong demand with serious structural challenges,” said Brian Prentice, Partner at Oliver Wyman and co-author of the report. “From persistent supply chain constraints to an aging workforce and emerging sustainability mandates, the path to long-term growth will require innovative solutions and strategic adaptation.”
About the Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2025-2035
This year, we proudly celebrate 25 years of publishing our Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast. The annual report is our commitment to the understanding and assessment of the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated MRO market outlook. The commentary is the go-to resource of aviation executives—whether a manufacturer, operator, or aftermarket provider, as well as for those with financial interests in the sector through private equity firms and investment banks. The report provides a 10-year outlook for the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market. This report, along with our Airline Economic Analysis, are staple resources to executives working in aerospace manufacturing, airlines, MRO, and financing of the sector through private equity firms and investment banks.
About Oliver Wyman
Oliver Wyman, a business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE: MMC), is a management consulting firm combining deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise to help clients optimize their business, improve operations and accelerate performance. Marsh McLennan is a global leader in risk, strategy and people, advising clients in 130 countries across four businesses: Marsh, Guy Carpenter, Mercer and Oliver Wyman. With annual revenue of over $24 billion and more than 90,000 colleagues, Marsh McLennan helps build the confidence to thrive through the power of perspective. For more information, visit marshmclennan.com, follow us on LinkedIn and X.